Monday, 14 March 2016

Venezuela and Kuwait Information Technology Report Q2 2016; New Report Launched

Venezuela and Kuwait Information Technology Report Q2 2016

The IT market in Venezuela plunged in US dollar value in 2015 as a result of devaluation, and with spiralling inflation, further bolívar weakness, political risk and a low oil price we expect further contraction in 2016 and over the medium term. We have a very bearish outlook for the IT market ami economic dislocation that has seen widespread deferred spending by households and enterprises, as well as product shortages due to restricted dollar access that has been so severe as to hit output by the domestic IT industry. There is elevated downside even under our bearish outlook, with increased risk of default or quasi default, though not our core scenario. We expect Venezuela to be the underperforming IT market globally in 2016 and over the medium term to 2020.

  • Computer Hardware Sales: From VEF9.9bn in 2016 to VEF24.5bn in 2020, at a CAGR of 25.5%. Inflation to drive local currency growth, but outlook is bleak due to sharp reduction in affordability and product shortages as even local assembly has stalled due to extent of economic dislocation.
  • Software Sales: From VEF3.2bn in 2016 to VEF8.9 in 2020, at a CAGR of 29.6%. Brain drain, piracy and weak enterprise investment outlook all weigh on the software spending forecast, with a return to growth only expected in final years of our forecast.
  • IT Services Sales: From VED2.8bn in 2016 to VEF8.1bn in 2020, at CAGR of 29.9%. Cost saving and flexibility enhancing services such as cloud and outsourcing could benefit over long-term from experience of crisis, but in the medium term this will be overwhelmed by crisis.


The growth outlook for Kuwait's IT market is weak, with the slowdown in private consumption in a saturated retail PC market the main factor in a hardware centric IT market. We forecast total IT spending will increase at a CAGR of 1.4% over 2016-2020, with software and services expected to outperform. Although the hardware segment has the weakest outlook, and is expected to contract slightly over the medium term, it will nonetheless remain highly lucrative due to the large premium segment. Meanwhile, software and services have a brighter outlook as the low oil price acts as a catalyst for diversification and investments in cost-saving and flexibility-enhancing IT solutions.

Latest Updates And Developments
  • Hardware: Sales in Kuwait will decrease from KWD154.0mn in 2016 to KWD151.0mn in 2020, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.6%. Weak consumption outlook in a saturated market will result in mild contraction of retail hardware spending.
  • Software: Spending is forecast to increase from KWD57.0mn in 2016 to KWD62.0mn in 2020, at a CAGR of 2.0%. Weak economic sentiment a drag on spending growth, but this will be offset by modernisation initiatives as enterprises look to cut costs.
  • Services: Spending is forecast to increase from KWD106.0mn in 2016 to KWD123.0mn in 2020, at a CAGR of 3.9%. The cost savings and increased flexibility offered by services such as cloud computing and outsourcing will support IT services outperformance in an environment of elevated economic uncertainty.

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