Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand Telecommunications Report Q2 2016; New Report Launched

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

• Based on data reported by Malaysia's mobile network operators, Maxis and DiGi and Telenor-backed Celcom, and by the country's telecoms sector regulator, we now believe that the number of mobile subscriptions reached 43.45mn at the end of 2015, equivalent to a penetration rate of 143%. During the year, the three established operators appear to have lost customers to the smaller players, a trend which coincided with the continued phasing-out of unused prepaid subscriptions.
• We now predict that the number of mobile subscriptions will rise to 45.34mn by the end of 2020. Growth across the market as a whole will be driven by migration to 3G/4G services and by a trend towards the use of multiple SIMconnected devices. Mobile ARPUs will continue to decline gradually, as price competition undermines the benefits of moving to premium services.
• In the wireline market, the main focus of growth will continue to be on the development of fibre-based high-speed access and backbone networks. Higher capacity wireline broadband infrastructure will facilitate the deployment of new services, including online video. By 2020 we predict there will be 8.284mn broadband accesses, up from 6.9mn at the end of 2015.

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Consolidation in the mobile market - with Mobilink set to acquire Warid - puts pressure on the remaining players, particularly CMPak (Zong), which has few strategic options other than proceeding with its USD1bn investment in its mobile-only business. The deal would not create an excessively-powerful player, but renewed price competition is expected and the negative impact on ARPUs can only be offset by increased uptake of premium services. This will be difficult in the prepaid-centric market, but the merger will at least motivate reviews of current business strategies.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

• 3G/4G mobile users totalled 23.166mn at the end of 2015, representing 18.4% of the total mobile market. Although increased usage of non-voice services is reported gains are neutralised by high taxes and termination rates as well as subsidised expansion into rural areas.
• Underinvestment by PTCL in wireline infrastructure and the limited reach of alternative players curtails expansion of broadband services. The high cost of broadband and connected devices means that next-generation networks would, in any case, be under-utilised for many years.

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In 2016, the focus in the Thai mobile sector will be on 4G as the 2015 spectrum auctions saw operators forking out exorbitant amounts for valuable spectrum, which will enable them to expand their LTE networks and range of value-added-services (VAS) without having the state-owned operators taking a cut as per the previous BTO-concession model. On the fixed broadband side, the NBTC and ICT ministry have laid out investment and roll-out plans for a national broadband network, using proceeds from the spectrum auction, enlisting state-owned CAT and TOT to carry it out. However, the lack of regulator independence and a political agenda in telecoms still inhibit development of the industry.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

• Total mobile subscriptions fell sharply to 83.09mn in Q315 as a result of the compulsory SIM registration drive which lasted till August. This was a 23.4% y-o-y contraction of total mobile subscribers.
• However, a notable effect was the resulting rise in 3G/4G subscriptions as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions to 92%, from 82% a year earlier, and we forecast total 3G/4G subscriptions to reach 92.55mn by end-2020.
• Despite the focus largely on the mobile sector this year, latest fixed broadband subscription data from the regulator has shown a strong continuous growth in subscribers, to 6.04mn in Q315, y-o-y growth of 9.2%. We believe this steady increase will continue in 2016 and reach 6.29mn by the year-end.

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